On the Recent Conflict

"The power of an air force is terrific when there is nothing to oppose it."

-Winston Churchill

I've followed with some interest the air war over Iran, such as it is.

This morning's online news clippings included an interesting interview with an Israeli F-15 pilot, recounting his experiences in the first strikes of the war.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjyzjx07eg

I remember all that. Indeed, I remember, with the exception of his feelings as he left his family at home to come through the gate of the air force base, knowing they'd be in the bulleye when Iran fired back.

I surely remember the fighting vigor of the Middle Eastern fighter pilots on the other side. As I observed a couple days ago, the Iranians aren't Arabs, but they seem to carry the same white feather when they're staring down an AMRAAM in the chops or the prospect of an actual dogfight. The aerial battles Iranian state TV described simply never happened. It's politically incorrect to conjecture as to why Middle Eastern militaries suffer from this endemic battlefield cowardice, but it's the one defining characteristic of every armed force in that region except, of course, the Israelis. Soldiers of these theocracies and tin pot dictatorships tend to get shot in the back while they're fleeing--take the Highway of Death during the Gulf War, as an example. They're only good at shooting women, children, and the elderly. Which explains why, when it came time for an Iranian counterattack, that's where the missiles were headed.

The overwhelming success of the Israeli air operation so far beckons back to our war. I'd say they've done better, in fact, maybe a result of the advances in technology since then. But if we're thinking again about 1991 and its aftermath, maybe this momentary euphoria is a little premature. Something like 16 million people live in metropolitan Tehran. The IAF has complete air supremacy at this point, loitering overhead and plinking targets with impunity. But one isn't hearing about unrest on the ground or any sort of grassroots movement to drive out the jerks who created this situation. It's one thing to decisively win an air war, but quite another to effect actual regime change. The best the Israelis can do, most likely, is simply to set back the Iranian nuclear program, perhaps by decades, and keep their powder dry for the next time.

Still, it's a thing to behold, isn't it? A complete rout of the largest military and political power in the region. "It is good that war is so terrible, or we would grow too fond of it." So said Marse Robert at Fredericksburg as he watched the Army of Northern Virginia slaughter the ranks of federals at the base of Marye's Heights. Within a year his own troops would suffer the same fate at Cemetery Ridge. That's the problem with military victory. Too often these triumphs are fleeting, where success on the battlefield isn't tied to some larger strategic vision in which warfighting is just a component.

I need to clean myself up and get at the day. Movers arrive in a couple hours to start hauling away the big pieces here at Tara. I've been battling a crushing grief since the reality hit me yesterday. A phase of life ends, here in the happiest of places for our little family. I'll get over it.